SkyRock Signals

​​#Analysis

#BTC

BTC price movement has 4 clear scenarios of further development. Probabilities of these scenarios are not equal. Taking into account current Technical and Fundamental analyses findings we can say the positive scenario has a greater probability to take place. DMI shows a small standard deviation, while PPO reveals no divergence, Stoch RSI is neutral and trade volume is relatively low. Fundamental side is neutral too, there was a meeting of US congress with Dr. Doom. Topic was criticism of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technology. As a result the price of Bitcoin fell down but quickly recovered to the triangle upper edge.

Taking into account all historical and current information we developed 4 scenarios:

The first scenario

Price will move down along with the upper edge of the descending triangle pattern which is drawn on the chart till it reached the orange line (lower edge of the small triangle) around $6 055

Then the price will bounce upward and break through $6 500 resistance which will start an impulse growth with a subsequent breakthrough $6 850 resistance level. Here we can see $7 000+ prices. Probability of this scenario is 20% as it highly depends on trade volume and consolidation after the 1st breakthrough

The second scenario

The price moves alongside the upper edge of the triangle as it does in the 1st scenario, but after it breaks through the resistance of $6 500 we will see a corrective pullback and consolidation around $6 200. From this point we will see a bounce and further rise to $6 550 level.

Probability of this scenario is the highest among all and equals 60%.

The third scenario

The price will move alongside the upper edge of the small triangle as in the previous scenarios. However it won't bounce from the orange line and will breakdown and start to move in the range of the bigger triangle bouncing from its edges. In the end we expect a breakthrough from $5 000 level to $5 850.

Probability of this scenario is 15% as there is no fundamental and technical background for such price movement, however it can occur due to manipulations.

The fourth scenario

This is a deadly scenario for Bitcoin which we should always take into account. The price will reach the end of the bigger triangle and will sharply go down to the 2-3 years minimum. This will start a depression and stagnation of BTC and crypto.

The probability of such negative scenario is 5%

We think the most likely the price will follow the 2nd scenario and after the bounce we will see a small corrective pull back for price consolidation. It is a good time to trade Alts. According to BTC investments you should wait a little bit before open large long term positions